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table : five-major-trends-indicators-drivers-and-impacts-on-the-carbon-cycle
Five Major Trends, Indicators, Drivers, and Impacts on the Carbon Cycle
This table appears in chapter 3 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report report.
(a) Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e): Amount of CO2 that would produce the same effect on the radiative balance of Earth’s climate system as another greenhouse gas, such as methane (CH4) or nitrous oxide (N2O), on a 100-year timescale. For comparison to units of carbon, each kg CO2e is equivalent to 0.273 kg C (0.273 = 1/3.67). See Box P.2, in the Preface for details.
|Trends||Indicators||Drivers||Impacts on Carbon Cycle|
|Decline in energy use and carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) (a) emissions||Decrease in total energy use with declines in demand for oil products and a slowed rate of increase in electricity demand||Economic recession, lower carbon intensities of fuels due to switching to natural gas and increases in renewables, lower energy intensities due to efficient new technologies, governmental policies, and ongoing structural changes leading to lower energy intensity||Lower emissions|
|Natural gas transition||Larger primary energy contribution from natural gas, increase in natural gas reserves, expansion of fracking, fuel switching in electricity generation and industry||New technologies, policies, and market forces (prices)||Lower emissions (potentially) offset by methane leakage|
|Increased renewable energy||Larger number and capacity of wind and solar power–generation plants, resulting in larger contributions of these sources to electricity generation||New technologies, governmental policies, and market forces (prices)||Lower emissions|
|Aging infrastructure||Age of infrastructure, higher costs of replacement, and increasing examples of infrastructure failure||Lack of public financing and political action||Potentially higher emissions|
|New understanding of biofuels and fugitive (e.g., leaked) natural gas emissions||Increasing number of studies demonstrating land-use emissions from biofuel production and potentially large unaccounted- for emissions levels from natural gas extraction, transmission, and distribution||Better understanding of 1) fuel life cycle and 2) indirect impacts of fuel production, transmission, and distribution||Revised estimates of emissions (impact may be positive or negative)|
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