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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/forests/finding/key-message-9-5>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-9-5";
   gcis:findingNumber "9.5"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Several factors driving the carbon sink in North American forests are expected to decline over coming decades, and an increasing rate of natural disturbance could further diminish current net carbon uptake (<em>medium confidence</em>)."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/forests>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Accounting for land-use change, management, disturbance, and forest aging, U.S. forests are projected to continue to uptake carbon but at declining rates, largely because of land-use dynamics and aging forests (USDA-OCE 2016; Wear and Coulston 2015). After 20 years of net gains, forest area is projected to level and then decline gradually after 2030 because of ongoing population growth and declining afforestation on agricultural lands (U.S. Forest Service 2012; Wear and Coulston 2015). In the western United States, aging forests coupled with disturbance dynamics are projected to diminish carbon uptake to negligible levels by midcentury. Younger productive forests in the East are expected to take up atmospheric carbon at a high rate, though ­harvest-related emissions substantially reduce the net effect on atmospheric carbon."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Although projections vary depending on future climate and land-use scenarios, theory, observations, and modeling all support the expectation that today’s carbon uptake from aging forests and from forest expansion will begin to decline in coming decades, and that natural disturbances will become more frequent and severe, releasing more forest carbon to the atmosphere."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Although projections vary depending on future climate and land-use scenarios, theory, observations, and modeling all support the expectation that today’s carbon uptake from aging forests and from forest expansion will begin to decline in coming decades, and that natural disturbances will become more frequent and severe, releasing more forest carbon to the atmosphere."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/forests/finding/key-message-9-5>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/preface/figure/figurep-4>.