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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> . @prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> . @prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> . @prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> . @prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> . <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/future-of-the-north-american-carbon-cycle/finding/key-message-19-5> dcterms:identifier "key-message-19-5"; gcis:findingNumber "19.5"^^xsd:string; gcis:findingStatement "Soil carbon losses in a warming climate will be a key determinant of the future North American carbon cycle. An important region of change will be the Arctic, where thawing permafrost and the release of previously frozen carbon will likely shift this region from a net sink to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere by the end of the century (<em>very high confidence</em>)."^^xsd:string; gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/future-of-the-north-american-carbon-cycle>; gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report>; ## Properties of the finding: gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "A meta-analysis of results from soil warming experiments indicates that soil carbon stock response to climate warming is variable but predictable and depends on the size of the soil carbon pool and the extent and duration of warming (Crowther et al., 2016). As a result, projected soil carbon losses are greatest at northern latitudes (e.g., Arctic and subarctic; see Figure 19.7, which have large soil carbon stocks and some of the most rapid rates of projected warming (Crowther et al., 2016; see also USGCRP 2017a and Section 19.3.3). With continued warming and large-scale losses of near-surface permafrost, almost all terrestrial carbon cycle models indicate that, by the end of this century, the Arctic could shift from a sink to a source of carbon (Cox et al., 2000; Fisher et al., 2014b)."^^xsd:string; gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "While some uncertainty remains about the timing, speed, and form of carbon release from permafrost thaw, there is strong agreement across multiple studies that climate warming will result in carbon loss from permafrost soils. Over time, under increased rates of warming in the Arctic, the carbon loss from permafrost thaw will likely cause high northern latitudes to switch from a net sink to a net source of carbon to the atmosphere."^^xsd:string; gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Although there is considerable agreement that climate warming will lead to carbon loss from permafrost regions, the amplitude, timing, and form of carbon release remain topics of debate (e.g., McGuire et al., 2018; Lenton et al., 2008; Schuur et al., 2015; Slater and Lawrence 2013). This disagreement stems from a lack of understanding of three key factors that determine the potential climate feedback of the permafrost carbon pool: 1) the area and depth of permafrost vulnerable to release, 2) the speed with which carbon will be released from thawing soils, and 3) the form of carbon (e.g., CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub>) that will be released (Schuur et al., 2013, 2015)."^^xsd:string; a gcis:Finding . ## This finding cites the following entities: <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/future-of-the-north-american-carbon-cycle/finding/key-message-19-5> prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/preface/figure/figurep-4>.