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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/future-of-the-north-american-carbon-cycle/finding/key-message-19-6>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-19-6";
   gcis:findingNumber "19.6"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Carbon storage in both terrestrial and aquatic systems is vulnerable to natural and human-driven disturbances. This vulnerability is likely to increase as disturbance regimes shift and disturbance severity increases with changing climatic conditions (<em>high confidence</em>)."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/future-of-the-north-american-carbon-cycle>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>Natural and human-driven disturbances will influence future vegetation carbon storage. Forest disturbance is a fundamental driver of terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics (Hicke et al., 2012). Harvesting, fire, wind throw, storms, pathogen and pest outbreaks, and drought collectively lead to the removal of 200 Tg C from U.S. forests annually (Williams et al., 2016). Initially, most disturbances shift an ecosystem to a carbon source, while recovery from disturbance is commonly associated with greater net ecosystem carbon storage (Magnani et al., 2007; Odum 1969). Hence, the effects of disturbance on carbon balance in forests are both immediate and lagged, and potentially long lasting. Given current management practices, climate change is likely to increase disturbance frequency and intensity across multiple spatial and temporal scales (Running 2008). Fire activity generally is expected to increase (Sommers et al., 2014; Westerling et al., 2006) in many regions, with fire seasons starting earlier and ending later compared to previous decades (Jolly et al., 2015). With climate warming, the range of insects (e.g., mountain pine beetle) is expected to expand into higher elevations and latitudes, putting previously unaffected forests at risk (Bentz et al., 2010; Kurz et al., 2008). Evidence suggests that the extent and severity of forest insect disturbances also are increasing with changing climate conditions (Kurz et al., 2008).</p> <p>Freshwater ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances and are considered to be among the most threatened ecosystems on the planet (Vorosmarty et al., 2010). Human activities such as water management, river fragmentation by dams, alteration of natural flow, construction of water impoundments, and land-use changes have a major impact on freshwater ecology, biology, and carbon cycling. There is high confidence that direct human impacts—including increasing urbanization, expansion of irrigated agriculture, and growing demand for water resources—will continue to dominate the threats to most freshwater ecosystems globally over the next three decades (Settele et al., 2014).</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Projections of future carbon cycle processes are highly sensitive to the ability of models to simulate external forcings. When projecting future carbon responses to natural and human-driven disturbances, there is a great deal of uncertainty (and intrinsic difficulty) in modeling disturbance events, particularly their timing, extent, and severity (Luo et al., 2015). Also, understanding and predicting the impacts of natural and human-driven disturbances on the carbon cycle require insights into and the ability to project management decisions, human use of land and aquatic systems, and the dynamic coupling and interconnectivity between natural and human-driven activities."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Projections of future carbon cycle processes are highly sensitive to the ability of models to simulate external forcings. When projecting future carbon responses to natural and human-driven disturbances, there is a great deal of uncertainty (and intrinsic difficulty) in modeling disturbance events, particularly their timing, extent, and severity (Luo et al., 2015). Also, understanding and predicting the impacts of natural and human-driven disturbances on the carbon cycle require insights into and the ability to project management decisions, human use of land and aquatic systems, and the dynamic coupling and interconnectivity between natural and human-driven activities."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/future-of-the-north-american-carbon-cycle/finding/key-message-19-6>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/preface/figure/figurep-4>.