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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/overview-of-the-global-carbon-cycle/finding/key-message-1-5>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-1-5";
   gcis:findingNumber "1.5"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Estimates of the global average temperature response to emissions range from +0.7 to +2.4°C per 1,000 Pg C using an ensemble of climate models, temperature observations, and cumulative emissions (Gillett et al., 2013). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2013) estimated that to have a 67% chance of limiting the warming to less than 2°C since 1861 to 1880 will require cumulative emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay below about 1,000 Pg C since that period, meaning that only 221 Pg C equivalent can be emitted from 2017 forward. Current annual global CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production are 10.7 Pg C per year, so this limit could be reached in less than 20 years. This simple estimate, however, has many uncertainties and does not include carbon cycle–climate feedbacks (<em>medium confidence)</em>. These conclusions are consistent with the findings of the recent <em>Climate Science Special Report</em> (USGCRP 2017)."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/overview-of-the-global-carbon-cycle>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Cumulative carbon emissions are quantified for Key Finding 5 using energy consumption statistics as described for Key Finding 3. The cumulative emissions required for staying below 2°C are estimated using climate models."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Based on climate models, temperature observations, and inventories of cumulative GHG emissions, it is clear these emissions have resulted in the observed global temperature increase. However, there remains some uncertainty about the exact temperature response to future emissions due to uncertainty about climate feedbacks."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "There is a range of plausible responses of global temperature to carbon emissions as a result of uncertainty in climate models, especially modeling cloud, aerosol, and carbon cycle feedbacks. In particular, the range of climate model sensitivity to a doubling of CO<sub>2</sub> is 1.5 to 4.5°C, suggesting uncertainty in the amount of cumulative carbon emissions that cannot be exceeded to stay below a global temperature increase of no more than 2°C. In addition, some potential carbon ­cycle–climate feedbacks, such as the effect of carbon emissions from permafrost thaw, are highly uncertain and may significantly lower the cumulative amount of carbon that can be emitted before the 2°C global temperature increase limit is exceeded."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/overview-of-the-global-carbon-cycle/finding/key-message-1-5>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/preface/figure/figurep-4>.