Figure : climate-change-effects-agricultural-commodities-2050-under-different-ssps-rcps

Climate-change effects on agricultural commodities in 2050 under different SSPs and RCPs

Figure -.4


This figure appears in chapter executive-summary of the Climate Change Global Food Security and the U.S. Food System report.

The more pessimistic “high concentration/low international cooperation” scenario (RCP8.5/SSP3) shows much larger and more variable climate-change effects for the five commodities (coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar), than the “medium concentration/middle of the road” (RCP6.0/SSP2) and “low concentration/sustainable development” (RCP4.5/SSP1) scenarios. All are compared to baseline of SSPs with no climate change. Results are from three GCMs and five economic models, aggregated across thirteen regions (n = 75). YEXO = yield effect of climate change without technical or economic adaptation, YTOT = realized yields after adaptation, AREA = agricultural area in production, PROD = total production, CONS = consumption, Expo = exports, IMPO = imports, PRICE = prices.

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