Figure : mean-price-changes-five-agricultural-models-2050-under-four-scenarios

Mean price changes of five agricultural models in 2050 under four scenarios

Figure 6.32


This figure appears in chapter 6 of the Climate Change Global Food Security and the U.S. Food System report.

Food prices from five global model projections for four scenarios, with error bars representing the uncertainty in results. The scenarios depicted here are relative to a projected 2050 baseline price when climate conditions are held constant at current levels. Scenario 1 projects moderately low emissions (RCP 4.5) and moderate levels of trade. Scenario 2 also projects moderately low emissions, but with freer trade than Scenario 1. Scenario 3 projects high emissions (RCP 8.5) and very restricted trade. Scenario 4 projects high emissions with restricted trade, but trade that is less restricted than under Scenario 3. All scenarios demonstrate increased prices under climate change. Freer trade results in smaller projected price increases for both low emissions (Scenario 2) and high emissions (4) scenarios.

When citing this figure, please reference Wiebe et al. 2015.

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