reference : Climate, deer, rodents, and acorns as determinants of variation in Lyme-disease risk

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reftype Journal Article
Abstract Risk of human exposure to vector-borne zoonotic pathogens is a function of the abundance and infection prevalence of vectors. We assessed the determinants of Lyme-disease risk ( density and Borrelia burgdorferi-infection prevalence of nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks) over 13 y on several field plots within eastern deciduous forests in the epicenter of US Lyme disease ( Dutchess County, New York). We used a model comparison approach to simultaneously test the importance of ambient growing-season temperature, precipitation, two indices of deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) abundance, and densities of white-footed mice ( Peromyscus leucopus), eastern chipmunks ( Tamias striatus), and acorns ( Quercus spp.), in both simple and multiple regression models, in predicting entomological risk. Indices of deer abundance had no predictive power, and precipitation in the current year and temperature in the prior year had only weak effects on entomological risk. The strongest predictors of a current year's risk were the prior year's abundance of mice and chipmunks and abundance of acorns 2 y previously. In no case did inclusion of deer or climate variables improve the predictive power of models based on rodents, acorns, or both. We conclude that interannual variation in entomological risk of exposure to Lyme disease is correlated positively with prior abundance of key hosts for the immature stages of the tick vector and with critical food resources for those hosts.
Author Ostfeld, R. S.; Canham, C. D.; Oggenfuss, K.; Winchcombe, R. J.; Keesing, F.
DOI 10.1371/Journal.Pbio.0040145
Date Jun
ISSN 1545-7885
Issue 6
Journal Plos Biology
Keywords ixodes-scapularis acari; northeastern united-states; spirochete borrelia-burgdorferi; white-footed mice; north-america; northwestern illinois; spatial-distribution; reduced abundance; eastern chipmunk; endemic area
Language English
Notes 052QY Times Cited:114 Cited References Count:65
Pages e145
Title Climate, deer, rodents, and acorns as determinants of variation in Lyme-disease risk
Volume 4
Year 2006
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_record_number 17747
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