Figure : better-seasonal-forecasts-multi-model-ensemble

Better Seasonal Forecasts with a Multi-Model Ensemble

Figure 3.4

Princeton University
Eric F. Wood

This figure appears in chapter 3 of the Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Global Change Research Program for Fiscal Year 2015 report.

The NMME (yellow column) is a seasonal forecasting system that combines individual models (purple columns N1-N6) to produce more accurate predictions of climate. In forecasts of precipitation (top two panels) and temperature (bottom two panels)— key factors for predicting drought—the NMME performs better than any of the individual models. The NMME’s better performance is indicated by the heights of the bars, which show performance relative to a reference forecast. (Credit: Adapted from results by E. Wood, Princeton University)

When citing this figure, please reference Eric Wood, Princeton (2014). Adapted by Dan Barrie (NOAA).

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